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    • Mix effects illustration

      When Metrics Move, Is It Behavior or Mix?

      March 11, 2026

      When an aggregate metric moves, is it because behavior changed or because the composition of traffic shifted? A simple three-term decomposition answers this precisely — and it's the most underrated...

      When Metrics Move, Is It Behavior or Mix?

      March 11, 2026

      When an aggregate metric moves, is it because behavior changed or because the composition of traffic shifted? A simple three-term decomposition answers this precisely — and it's the most underrated...

    • Compounding Knowledge vs Compounding Errors

      Experiments Are a Durable Moat

      March 6, 2026

      AI collapses the cost of building. It does not collapse the cost of being wrong. Experimentation is the mechanism that converts speed into learning.

      Experiments Are a Durable Moat

      March 6, 2026

      AI collapses the cost of building. It does not collapse the cost of being wrong. Experimentation is the mechanism that converts speed into learning.

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